04-05-2010 - Vol. 41 / No. 7US beer shipments continue down 4-5% for 6 mos, down 2.6% for 12 mos. That's unprecedented weakness. Feb taxpaid shipments drop of 900,000 bbls, 6.2%, followed 1.2-mil-bbl, 8% drop in Jan. Add it up and taxpaid domestic brewer shipments already down 2.1 mil bbls, 7% Jan-Feb 2010. Even with 20% import pop in Jan, known YTD shipments down 1.8 mil bbls, 5.9%. With this start, if industry managed to stay even for rest of yr, it would still be down nearly 1% in 2010, following 2.4% drop in 09. Meanwhile, spirits and wine continue to grow modestly amidst lotsa trade down.
A lot of beer's ugly 2010 start had to do with horrific Jan. Things have improved since then. Total industry sales-to-retailers reportedly down double digits in Jan (not selling-day adjusted). STRS much closer to even in Feb, INSIGHTS hears. And Mar showed good pop for some distribs, what with extra selling day; INSIGHTS talked to 3 large distribs (over 10 mil cases) 2 down 1-1.5% for qtr following strong Mar, the 3d still down more than 5%. But off premise scan data not nearly so dire (see below). So even with steeper on-premise drops, total industry retail trend not as bad as early 2010 shipments data.
