01-26-2010 - Vol. 41 / No. 2Following 1.3% sales-to-retail drop in 3d qtr, MillerCoors STRs sunk 3.6% in 4th qtr. That's almost a 2.5% drop in 2d half. Key change: Coors Light turned down last 2 qtrs after 16 straight qtrs of growth. Is this just weak overall biz and tradedown, or is CL mktg platform now showing signs of age? On top of it, no Miller Lite turnaround in sight. Indeed, MC's premium light beers down "mid single digits" in qtr, including "continued strong growth" from MGD 64 (up 40% in IRI last 13 weeks). Since those 3 brands almost 57% of volume and more of profits, makes it very tuff for MC to grow with #s like that. Total MC shipments down 4.2%, SABMiller reported. In 3d qtr, MC had significantly outperformed AB, but MC probably only held serve in tuff 4th qtr, perhaps AB even gained share (its # not out yet). "Misery loves company," one AB exec said of MC results. Both AB and MC face tuff comps in early 2010. Meanwhile, MC's craft/import and subpremium beers down "slightly" SABMiller said. Even Keystone Light slowed, up hi-single digits.
While its Coors growth engines slowed or turned down in 4th qtr, MillerCoors still suffe-rin' from overhang of legacy Miller portfolio. Legacy Miller dropped 5.6%, while legacy Coors up 4.6% for full yr thru Dec 27 in IRI food/drug/convenience. Total MC volume down 1.9% in IRI. MC's top 4 brands (Coors Light, Miller Lite, High Life and Keystone Light) are 70% of its volume. Besides Lite, big problems in legacy Miller brands below that. Several down double-digits: Mil Best Light fell 11.6%, Best down 14.5%, Miller Gen Draft down 18%. Yikes. Icehouse, MC's #5 brand, hangin' in with modest 2% drop and Mil Best Ice and Steel Reserve down 3.5% each. These 10 brands 85% of MC biz. Brands #11-15 fared far better, including Coors even, Blue Moon up 10%, MGD 64 up 136%.
