11-02-2009 - Vol. 40 / No. 20Not only is current environment tuffest we’ve seen for beer, but emerging demographic trends suggest beer suppliers may have to finally change their mktg approach to get future growth. Incessant fixation on young adult males will run into roadblocks in near/ intermediate term. That’s based on fairly fixed demographic projections. Several key points emerge from Ad Age white paper by Peter Francese called 2010 America: What the Census Means for Marketing and Advertising. Like in last decade, total US population will grow about 1% per yr for next 10 yrs. Makes it tuff to grow much, which “explains the urgency of finding market segments that are growing and/or spending faster than that,” wrote Peter. But it’s tuffer yet for beer. Population of 15-24 yr olds will basically stay flat; projected up 0.2% for next 10 yrs. Number of young adult drinkers will be roughly same (no breakout of 21-24), and even those 25-34 will grow just 10% over next 10 yrs. Compare to fastest growing segment of population: number of 65-74 yr olds will be up 51% over next 10-yrs. Those 55-64 and 75+ will each be up about 20%. So dust off those mktg plans for geriatric crew. Too bad brewers can’t advertise health benefits of moderate beer consumption, because older folks reap the most rewards from drinking.
That ain’t only important trend that goes against grain of where beer folks currently focus virtually all their mktg. It’s women who are gaining purchasing power. Women will account “for a majority of householders” (what used to be called “head of household” in census). Women already majority of population and “closing in fast on being a majority of college grads,” wrote Peter. Third big trend is towards a more multicultural society. Beer biz has addressed this with some success for some time, but will need to do even better. While 80% of adults 65+ are “white non-Hispanic,” only 54% of children under 18 are. Already in top 10 cities “no racial or ethnic category describes a majority of the population.” Young adult males also are those mostly typically employed in construction and manufacturing, 2 industries in severe downturns most don’t expect to come back soon. Add it all up: flat population in key demo that also faces disproportionate economic challenges, women as increasing % of “householders,” aging of population and beer biz cannot do same thing it’s been doing and expect different results. About 20 yrs ago, consultant Bob Weinberg looked at these same trends in earlier stages and suggested brewers needed to mkt more to women and older folks. But no one’s taken him up on it yet.
